The Skinny

Weekly Market Activity Report 5.26.09

We here at MAAR trust you enjoyed a relaxing and respectful Memorial Day weekend. For the week ending May 16, there were 1,960 new listings, 10.2 percent less than the same week in 2008. The decline in new listings has helped improve the larger picture of total active listings.

Inventory is being sold through at a rate that is still flying high above last year’s numbers. Breaking the 1,200 pending sales threshold for the first time in three years, the 1,235 pending sales occurring during the most recent reporting week is up 36.9 percent over the same week last year. While many of these sales are lender-mediated properties, the increase in sales is welcome news regardless.

The decline in new listings, coupled with increased pending sales, has resulted in active listings supply dropping significantly. A year-over-year comparison of active listings from last May reveals a drop of 20.5 percent, bringing our Supply-Demand Ratio down to a healthy 5.23 houses for sale per buyer.

The rebalancing is beginning but the journey back will be slow. It appears that enough houses will soon be off the market, thus creating a rebalancing of the buyer-seller mix and a reversal in price trends.

Click here to access the full Weekly Market Activity Report.

May Monthly Skinny Video Online!

This month's Monthly Skinny Video is online! This edition is another quickfire update on the market, this time narrated by our Immediate Past-President Kevin Knudsen (aka "K-Knud" of "K2"). You'll also spy some zany British Chimney Sweep vocal stylings from our own Robyn Chargo.

Feel free to share this wherever and whenever you'd like.

Click here to view the video in a separate screen or just click the embedded clip below.

Weekly Market Activity Report 5.18.09

1,004. 1,046. 1,083. 1,078. 1,120. 1,185.
 
Notice a pattern? That's the number of signed purchase agreements each of the last six weeks in the Twin Cities housing market, growing most weeks as the spring buyer market heats up. The 1,185 pending sales during the week of May 9 were a robust 26.6 percent higher than the same week in 2008. Over the last three months, there have been 2,228 more pending sales than the same period last year.
 
There are some caveats to this good news:
 
1) Traditional home sales (excluding foreclosures and short sales) over those last three months are down 17.6 percent from a year ago.
2) Sales above $190,000 are down 19.2 percent from a year ago.
3) Sales of new construction homes are down 16.8 percent from a year ago.
 
Looking through a sharper lens is sometimes the best way to fully understand market dynamics. Take a look at our Housing Supply Outlook and foreclosures and short sales report to learn more.

Click here for the full Weekly Market Activity Report.

The 100+ is Updated for May

Want to know how many houses have sold year-to-date in Eagan? Or if its taking longer to sell a house in Saint Louis Park this year than last year?

Of course you do. You're only human.

That's why we've got "The 100+," our free monthly market update tool that provides housing market info for over 205 communities in the Twin Cities metro area. Just updated yesterday morning, you can find the latest info by clicking here.

Home sales hot streak continues into spring heat

We released our monthly stats news release today. Here's what we said:

April home sales in the Twin Cities were even stronger than March's upswing. There were 5,211 pending sales in April, up 23.8 percent from last April. This is the highest showing of signed purchase agreements in April since 2005 and the tenth consecutive month of year-over-year increases.

Of the month's pending sales, 46.0 percent were lender-mediated foreclosures and short sales—down from the last few months as more traditional properties are sold during the spring selling season but up from last year at this time.

The supply of homes for sale continues to experience sluggish growth this spring. There are currently 26,410 homes for sale in the Twin Cities, up 416 units from last month and down 18.4 percent from this time last year. The number of houses for sale for each buyer, as measured by our Supply-Demand Ratio, sits at 5.23 for May—down 28.6 percent from this time last year.

The median sales price for all properties in April of $153,000 is down 25.2 percent from a year ago. While this figure is mathematically correct, it is conceptually flawed. Since a higher share of sales this April were lender-mediated than last April, the number is skewed downward. The median April sales price of traditional homes was $205,000, down 8.5 percent from a year ago. Lender-mediated homes posted an April figure of $120,000, down 21.5 percent from a year ago.

Weekly Market Activity Report 5.11.09

Not everyone is thrilled by increasing numbers, but what they represent in the Twin Cities housing market is nothing to worry for 108 minutes over. Two increases—pending sales and housing affordability—are indicating improvement in the local housing market.

There were 1,120 pending sales for the week ending May 2, a healthy 26.3 percent above last year at this time. The Housing Affordability Index, now at 219, is 45.5 percent above where it was a year ago.

Active listings continue to underwhelm at 26,450, a decrease of 19.5 percent from last year. The lower figure, coupled with increased sales, has in turn helped to create a Supply Demand Ratio of 5.02 for April—31 percent lower than last year. Combining this with the 24.5 percent drop in Months Supply of Inventory over the past year could speak to the amount of houses (and foreclosures) remaining on the market that are selling through.

We don't want to get too far ahead of ourselves, but this could also usher in some new construction for the summer period. According to the Builders Association of the Twin Cities, there were 419 residential units permitted in April 2009, an increase of 43 percent over March 2009. You don't have to be able to read hieroglyphics to see that within these numbers there could be some optimism found in what was once Lost.

Click here for the full Weekly Market Activity Report

May Housing Supply Outlook

The May Housing Supply Outlook is live all up in the interwebz. As usual, here's a quick feel for what to watch for in this in-depth, detailed look at supply and demand in the Twin Cities. Lately, there appears to be a jumbo-sized problem with home sales (if you know what we mean):

While it's certainly welcome news that home sales are up in the Twin Cities metro, there's a big caveat to keep in mind pertaining to price points. All of the growth in sales can be found in the lower price ranges where, not coincidentally, foreclosure and short sales are more common.

The largest drops in home sales can be found in the price ranges above $350,000 where, not coincidentally, higher jumbo mortgage rates are charged to borrowers.

The inventory of homes for sale is now lower than it was a year ago for every price range except homes under $120,000, where it is still up 38.1 percent from this time last year.

Click here to view the full Housing Supply Outlook.

Weekly Market Activity Report 5.4.09

We trust that you had a good May Day, International Worker's Day or early Cinco de Mayo celebration. Whatever your cause for celebration, the Twin Cities housing market did not take a holiday. During the week ending April 25, pending sales posted their fourth consecutive week of more than 1,000 sales, a feat not accomplished since 2006. The 1,078 sales represent a 34.1 percent increase over the same week last year.
 
Supply remains a different story. New listings were hitting the market at a robust pace last spring, but activity has been comparatively tepid this year. New listings are 16.4 percent behind one year ago and the overall supply of homes for sale trails last year by 19.0 percent. We have remained near 26,000 homes for sale for most of this year, betraying the healthy seasonal growth we typically see this time of year.
 
Yes, supply is down, but there's still plenty of inventory out there. April's showers are behind us, the Housing Affordability Index is stratospherically healthy, low mortgage rates persist, and a first-time buyer tax credit remains in effect. At this clip, your buyers could certainly find May flowers blooming in front of their newly purchased homes.

Click here for the full Weekly Market Activity Report.