Neighorboods Where Traditional Homes Are In Shortest Supply

Last week we looked at which neighborhoods were seeing their inventory of available foreclosures and short sales dwindling. The general conclusion: lender-mediated properties are going fast and buyers have to be quick and aggressive to secure them.

This week we're looking at the other side of the coin: homes listed by traditional sellers. In general, these properties are not selling quite as quickly than their cheaper lender-mediated cousins and are still facing challenging conditions. As of September 1 there was 10.1 months of traditional supply compared to 4.0 months of lender-mediated supply.

But there are some areas where traditional properties are moving relatively quickly. Let's take a look at the Top 30 neighborhoods by Months Supply of Inventory. You'll probably notice some patterns. Think urban and first-ring suburban, dudes:

Homes Listed by Traditional Sellers
		Months Supply	Active Listings
1	303 - MPLS - Longfellow	2.7	55
2	744 - SP-Como	3.8	51
3	361 - Crystal	4.0	62
4	304 - MPLS - Nokomis	4.3	192
5	750 - SP-Mac/Groveland/River Roa	4.4	72
6	363 - Brooklyn Center	4.8	73
7	378 - Richfield	4.9	118
8	306 - MPLS - Northeast	5.1	123
9	752 - SP-Highland Area	5.1	82
10	308 - MPLS - Powderhorn	5.7	92
11	379 - Bloomington-East	6.0	93
12	362 - New Hope	6.1	60
13	602 - South St. Paul	6.1	67
14	360 - Robbinsdale	6.1	72
15	746 - SP-St. Anthony/Midway	6.2	69
16	310 - MPLS - University	6.4	42
17	309 - MPLS - Southwest	6.4	287
18	748 - SP-Town & Country	6.5	41
19	301 - MPLS - Camden	6.8	150
20	742 - SP-Central	7.0	70
21	738 - SP-Home Croft/W 7Th	7.0	30
22	768 - Fridley	7.1	85
23	770 - Hilltop/Columbia Heights	7.2	78
24	771 - Spring Lake Park	7.3	22
25	766 - Moundsvw/New Brightn/St.Anthony	7.3	150
26	391 - Saint Louis Park	7.4	301
27	702 - Falcon Hghts/Lauderdale/Roseville	7.5	159
28	716 - SP-Hillcrest/Hazel Park/Dayton's Bluff	7.5	191
29	720 - SP-Southeast St. Paul	7.5	39
30	714 - SP-Phalen	7.5	113

There's not a second- or third-ring suburb in the bunch. You'll also notice that these neighborhoods tend not to contain too many expensive homes. The median prices in these neighborhoods tend to fall in the low-to-mid ranges that are affordable to a larger swath of home buyers. And when you think about perhaps the largest factor driving buyer demand right now, it makes a lot of sense: the first-time home buyer tax credit, dummy.

Let me show you what I mean:

 

I'd call that a pattern.

First-time home buyers are extremely active due to the tax credit and—unless mom and dad have chipped in a ridiculous amount of money to help—first-time home buyers don't typically buy homes in the $500,000 and above price range.

What we've got is an extremely bottom-heavy market (insert inappropriate metaphor here) with robust activity in the price ranges typically populated by first-time buyers, and a declining market still searching for a bottom in the higher price ranges.

Takeaway: traditional home sellers in the mid-to-low price ranges have a serious window of opportunity for the next month to find a willing buyer, especially with foreclosure inventory becoming so scarce. When the tax credit expires in November, the landscape might look a little different.

Comments

[Steve M. Albers]

This Post supports the fact that market conditions vary from city to city and neighborhood to neighborhood. I encourage home buyers and sellers to stay connected to broader market information. By doing so, dialog with their Realtor as it relates to their particular goals, objectives, and specific market conditions, will be clear, as they will understand their individual market situation may be very different from that of the broader market, whether it be neighboring cities or communities.