The Skinny

July Housing Supply Outlook

The July Housing Supply Outlook is out. Once again, in the interest of making your time with this detailed report tool as efficient as possible, here's a few items to watch for:

• The new construction market has achieved an important step towards its eventual recovery. The Months Supply of Inventory for new construction properties is now less than at this time one year ago -- dropping slightly from 11.0 months in July 2007 to 10.8 today. This figure has been increasing steadily for several straight years. A drastic decrease in new construction inventory is the reason for the decline.
• Condominium prices continue to indicate healthier dynamics than the other property types, with both average sales price and price per square foot up slightly. This sub-market seems to have peaked and flattened earlier than others, and also has far fewer foreclosures and short sales affecting overall price data.
• The entire market continues to shift downward to the lower price ranges, in both supply and demand -- an indication of the growing prevalence of lender-mediated foreclosures and short sales in the Twin Cities.

Click here for the full Housing Supply Outlook.

June Housing Supply Outlook

The June Housing Supply Outlook is out. As usual, here's a quick list of what to watch for, in the interest of making your time with this detailed report as efficient and productive as possible:

• The big story in the Twin Cities housing market this month is that the total marketwide inventory of homes for sale is now below a year ago. A closer look at property categories paints a more nuanced picture. The number of previously owned homes is actually up 1.2 percent from last year, while new construction inventory is down a whopping 26.3 percent (1,422 units).
• Condominiums are down the most, with 7.6 percent less inventory than a year ago, while single-family detached homes are down the least—only 2.3 percent for now. With foreclosures and short sales maintaining their increased market share and single-family detached homes a more common foreclosure type, this is not shocking.
• Inventory below $190,000 is actually up 33.4 percent from last year, while properties listed above that mark are down 15.9 percent. Once again, the prevelance of foreclosures and short sales is undoubtedly having an impact here.

Click here to view the full June Housing Supply Outlook.

May Housing Supply Outlook

The May Housing Supply Outlook is out. As usual, here's a quick list of what to watch for, in the interest of making your time with this detailed report as efficient and productive as possible:

• The entire housing market—in both supply and demand—is seeing a downward shift in activity towards the lower price ranges, likely a result of the increasing market share of foreclosures and short sales. Compared to this time last year, the supply of homes under $150,000 is up 87.2 percent and home sales in that price range are up 49.8 percent. There is far less happening in the middle and upper price brackets.

• A much smaller share of condominiums are foreclosures or short sales than the townhouse and single-family detached markets. It's not a coincidence then that the average sales price and price per square foot of condos is actually holding relatively steady and not seeing dramatic overall value declines.

• New construction inventory is still down significantly—21.7 percent behind this time last year, to be exact. The months supply of new construction inventory is only up 2.8 percent in the last year to 11.4 months, compared to a 24.0 percent increase for the previously owned market.

April Housing Supply Outlook

The April Housing Supply Outlook is ready to rock. That's code for "we just put it up on the website, so you should read it n' stuff, or whatever."

As usual, here's a quick list of what to watch for, in the interest of making your time with this large and complex report as efficient and productive as possible.

• Remember all that talk about the record number of houses on the market and the ridiculous plethora of inventory that buyers could linger over and slowly cherry-pick from? That was then and this is now. The total number of homes on the market today compared to the same time a year ago is only 4.2 percent higher—a much lower number than we've seen over the last three years.

• If you compare the number of homes for sale today with the same time a year ago, five of the eight price ranges we track actually have less on the market. Only the three price ranges under $190,000 have more on the market now than they did a year ago. Home sellers who are priced at $190,000 or above actually have less competition for buyers this year than they did last year.

• The condo market continues to show early signs of bottoming out. Inventory is down and prices are stablizing after two years of decline. With that said, sales of condos remain sluggish and likely won't spike dramatically upwards anytime soon.

Click here for the full April Housing Supply Outlook.

March Housing Supply Outlook

The March Housing Supply Outlook has just "hit the streets," as it were. Dedicated fans of the HSO (as we call it) know that there is a literal deluge of information to absorb each month. In the interest of making your time with it more effective, here's a few quick takeaways to look for:

• There has been massive growth in the inventory of homes for sale in the lower price ranges below $190,000. This is very likely a combination of natural price depreciation knocking homes down into the lower ranges and the preponderance of priced-to-move REO properties.
• The two property type categories with the highest months supply of inventory are new construction single-family detached homes (12.0 months) and previously-owned condominums (11.3 months). The two categories with the lowest months supply of inventory are previously owned single-family detached homes (8.7 months) and previously owned townhomes (9.3 months).
• Despite the lowest decline in unit sales of any property type, single-family homes are currently seeing the largest declines in value, 5.6 percent down in price per square foot when comparing home sales for the last twelve months to the previous twelve months before that.

Click here for the full March Housing Supply Outlook.

February Housing Supply Outlook

Condominium supply continues to fall—the number of units for sale in the Twin Cities metro area has declined by 4.7 percent from this time last year. The entirety of that decline is due to a precipitious fall in new condo projects.

There's a direct correlation between home prices and change in Months Supply from one year ago, from top to bottom. The lowest price ranges have experienced the most growth in Months Supply and the highest price ranges have experienced the least growth. Part of this likely due to steady price reductions in homes adding new supply to the ranges directly below the home's previous value.

Not coincidentally, the lower price ranges features the lowest figures for Percent of Original List Price Received at Sale. Sellers in those ranges are being forced to make steeper price reductions before sale.

Click here for the full February 2008 Housing Supply Outlook.