April 30, 2008

Lessons from the RREAR Pt. II

Rrearicon_2 We pick up here where we left off, with the second part of our new series: Lessons from the RREAR, where we dig deeper into the data found in our Annual Residential Real Estate Activity Report.

Today's subject: Square Footage.

Despite a consistent decline in the number of residents per household each year thanks to an aging population and relatively lower birth rates, the average square footage of Twin Cities homes continued its inexorable rise upwards in 2007. As newer, larger homes are added to the pipeline and existing homes are refurbished and expanded over time, the overall size of our homes gradually increases, seemingly into infinity.

This is either fantastic or horrible news, depending on whether or not you're generally in favor of second amusement rooms in the basement for antique billiard tables and pinball machines.

Entirely-too-subtle jabs at suburban consumerism aside, what this all means is that every year we seem to have more square footage per person than ever before. So relax and truly enjoy that extra beanbag chair or Barcalounger with no shame.

Below are the Top 20 areas in the Twin Cities for Average Finished Square Footage for closed sales in 2007. This is where you can really sterch out into that 7th bedroom. Not coincidentally, some of these are also the higher-priced communities in the region:

Code Area Avg. Sq. Footage
605 Sunfish Lake 5,120
368 Hennepin-Northwest 2,929
398 Victoria 2,927
381 Lake Minnetonka 2,733
604 Mendota/Lilydale/Mendota Heights 2,595
392 Eden Prairie 2,569
396 Chanhassen 2,541
707 Ham Lake 2,519
642 Prior Lake 2,413
385 Edina 2,389
626 Lakeville 2,318
367 Hennepin-North 2,317
762 Andover 2,301
727 Stillwater/Bayport 2,288
365 Maple Grove/Osseo 2,283
644 Savage 2,244
374 Plymouth 2,234
726 Woodbury 2,216
721 Lakeland/Afton/Denmark 2,206
706 North Central Suburban 2,198

And here are the Bottom 20 areas. Not surprisingly, you'll notice regions here that either a) have a high preponderance of condominiums and/or b) have a relatively older housing stock and/or c) are located in the two center cities or first-ring suburbs.

Code Area Avg. Sq. Footage
741 SP – Downtown/Capital Heights 1,089
302 Mpls – Central 1,307
308 Mpls – Powderhorn 1,310
742 SP – Central 1,322
310 Mpls – University 1,333
307 Mpls – Phillips 1,347
301 Mpls – Camden 1,351
303 Mpls – Longfellow 1,360
738 SP – Home Croft/W 7Th 1,377
306 Mpls – Northeast 1,386
746 SP – St. Anthony/Midway 1,421
716 SP – Hillcrest/Hazel Park/Daytons Bluff 1,430
728 SP – Riverview/Cherokee 1,442
386 Hopkins 1,457
379 Bloomington-East 1,462
305 Mpls – North 1,469
714 SP – Phalen 1,504
304 Mpls – Nokomis 1,514
600 West St. Paul 1,516

For a look at the geographic boundaries of these MLS areas, visit here. And stay tuned in the weeks ahead for more Lessons from the RREAR.

April 29, 2008

Riding in the Pyrenees

GreglemondLe Tour De Housing Market
One of my favorite aspects of the Tour De France is the race through the Pyrenees. For several days, riders struggle mightily through tremendous mountain climbs in an effort to win the coveted yellow jersey and hopefully cement themselves as a legitimate contender to win the Tour.

For the past few years, our housing market has been challenged by a real estate ride through the Pyrenees. Rapidly growing inventories (see chart) created a steep mountain climb that home sellers and real estate agents had to navigate in an effort to get their homes sold. And, like the riders on the Tour, many fell short of achieving their goal.

Pyreneessm

Looking at what lies ahead, it appears the regional real estate market is approaching the end of the Pyrenees, leading to more modest hills on the horizon. Over the past several weeks, new listing activity has declined significantly and the total inventory of homes for sale is nearing its concluding peak. In fact, for the first time in years we expect to soon be reporting that listing inventory has actually declined as compared to one year earlier.

This recent phenomenon, the result of a combination of declining seller activity and growing buyer activity, will gradually shift our market back in the direction of a balanced market, meaning supply and demand will be cycling at a complimentary pace.

Yes, it will take us a while yet to get to the finish line, meaning the eventual balanced market. Nonetheless, it is encouraging news that we appear to be moving out of the mountains, into the hills and ultimately, on to smoother real estate roads.

April 28, 2008

Minneapolis Advantage Loan Program

The City of Minneapolis is tired of sitting back while foreclosures pockmark the visage of parts of their fair city. Fearing neighborhood degredation, they're trying to spur some of the kinds of redevelopment that city councils and neighborhood groups always love.

Basically, anything but rental conversions.

Thus enters the Minneapolis Advantage Loan Program, a downpayment and closing cost assistance program which offers $10,000 zero percent interest rate loans forgivable over five years to anyone buying a home in one of the city-defined eligible neighborhoods.

How does the city define an "eligible neighborhood?" It's actually quite objective and reasonable, much to our delight. Areas of the city which have been affected significantly by foreclosures, as expressed by a ratio of foreclosures compared to all properties, are the programs' focus. Click here for an excellent (but unsurprising) map.

For more information, check out some FAQ's and a general run-down.

Grainbeltsignbl

Weekly Market Activity Report 4.28.08

For two years, home buyers in the Twin Cities housing market have behaved like medieval kings—looking down upon their vast and glistening kingdom of available homes for sale with a calm and dismissive eye, slowly selecting their properties without hurry or haste. While their reign is not yet over, there are some noticeable cracks in the walls of their castle.

Sellers are not putting homes on the market with anywhere close to the frequency with which they did the last four years. For the week ending April 19, there were only 2,152 new listings, down 19.6 percent from the same week last year. This marks the sixth week in the last seven with a double-digit percentage drop from 2007. The slowdown in buyer activity has also shown signs of abating, as the number of new purchase agreements signed for the week ending April 19 was 893, only 3 units behind the total of 896 seen this week last year. This is the second straight week of relatively flat year-over-year pending sales activity.

However, don't head out and buy that $80,000 Italian sports car you've always wanted just yet. It's important to bear in mind that:

1) foreclosure and short-sale activity is taking up a larger portion of our overall market activity than it did previously, which has the effect of propping these numbers up a bit, and

2) we're still 39.8 percent behind our 2005 sales pace from the end of the boom cycle.

But flattening overall supply (only up 0.4 percent from this time last year) and encouraging trends in sales figures should serve as welcome signs that the market corrections we've experienced in the last two years are taking a turn. Some semblance of order may very well be restored to the "kingdom" in the next year.

Click here for the full Weekly Market Activity Report.

King_castle_inflatable_moonwalk

The Wright County Discussion

527pxmap_of_minnesota_highlighting_ As many of you already know, the Star Tribune recently ran an in-depth three-part series on the Wright County real estate market called "From Boom to Bust." Wright County has experienced some tumultous changes in the last few years due in no small part to the real estate boom and resulting explosion of new construction activity in the growing, exurban region. With the housing market now in contraction, Wright County is—like many counties in the metro—experiencing dramatic declines in new construction and uncertainties with some high-profile residential projects.

The Strib broke up their coverage into three parts:

Part I: Minnesota's New Ghost Towns

Part II: Housing Bets Gone Bad

And Part III, with an infinitely less-catchy title: Suburbs stuck with empty houses are trying to figure out what to do now

No matter your take on the fairness or objectivity of these reports, they are worth the read, and highlight some important market currents underpinning the challenges that face communities struck hard by the shifting market. The Strib's editor even went as far as publicly praising her staff for their work on the story.

But some aren't so pleased with the coverage, perhaps justifiably so, for its laser-focus on one specific county's troubles. In light of the troubles experienced by the entire metro, this feels like an unnecessary pile-on by some. In the interest of promoting intellectual curiousity and vigorous discussion, below is an unpublished letter to the Strib editor, penned by Wright County Economic Development Partnership leader Noel LaBine (hat-tip to Laurie Karnes for sending it our way):

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Star Tribune Article off-balance

The recent articles by Star Tribune reporters Chris Seeres, Jim Buchta, and Glenn Howatt have been very biased in their presentation of the current housing situation in the area. Why they decided to target Wright County is curious. They certainly have not taken a balanced view of what has happened in the current market. Moreover, their interpretation of the facts is misleading.

They are biased because they have decided to use a fear mongering approach to explain an already distressed situation. Obviously they are not students of the use of media to be an asset towards the development of community. Words like reckless, ghost towns, and meltdowns are more useful to describe war and devastation than to describe a needed correction in the housing price bubble. Quoting people, who believe that were heading for a depression, adds further impetus to their fear-mongering.

More on the positive side includes all the businesses that are doing well in Wright County. Expansions have recently occurred for manufacturers in Annandale, Cokato, and St. Michael, and more are being planned for manufacturers in Howard Lake and Monticello. These are building expansions ranging from 7,000 s.f. to 90,000 s.f. Other expansions are occurring with several manufacturers, that I know of, that does not include building expansion, but which certainly include product and/or workforce expansions. In addition there are several large projects underway with a new jail being built in Buffalo, an addition to the hospital clinic in Monticello, and a new Fleet Farm retail center in Monticello. In addition to these, there are two new restaurants being planned for Otsego and two more new bank buildings going up there as well. Meanwhile, a new community center is being planned for St. Michael. Some other new businesses that are looking to move into or start-up in Wright County include a corrugated plastic pipe manufacturer, an environmental concrete wet-waste handling businesses that will employ up to 40 employees in two years, and a natural pet and human skin and teeth treatment and food supplement business. These are just some of the many projects that are occurring in Wright County, which has a healthy economy overall.

A more balanced view would consider some of the facts. If 1 out of 40 houses are in foreclosure, in Wright County that would be about 2.5% or 97.5% of houses are either paid for or the owners are able to make their monthly payments. Which way of presenting that information is less scary? In a balanced view aren’t both points of view valid? There is another fact mis-represented. While Otsego, Albertville and St. Michael may have had predominantly German ancestors, there are 16 communities in Wright County, and some of them have had a majority of their ancestry from either Ireland, or Finland, or Quebec, or other regions. I raise this point, because in Wright County we have balance, we believe in balance, and we try to maintain a balanced point-of-view.

While the current distressed housing industry and market is worrisome and has caused some decay in consumer confidence, this is certainly not the general profile of our economy. The housing and auto industry only makes up 7% of our gross domestic product. The other 93% of our economy is doing fine. With the declining value in the dollar, not only are U.S. and Minnesota manufacturers experiencing increased demand for their products, but for the first time in 20 years we are experiencing a positive foreign balance of trade. This market correction is not only a necessary part of a free market society, but already there are some very positive signs of the much-needed correction. Bottom line is 95% of us have good jobs and we are making are payments. Hardly the profile for the despairing economy that the Star Tribune promotes.

If the purpose of their articles were to sow dissension and fear, then they have succeeded. I have attended five events in Wright County in the last four days, and everyone has had a negative reaction to the stories. One realtor told me that a deal that she has been working on for a retail strip mall is being further scrutinized by the banker, because he has been spooked by the article. A number of people have asked me to write a response to these articles. If the Star Tribune is trying to regain some of the subscribers that they have lost, I would suggest that printing articles like these is not a good tactic.

Another criticism of their tactics is their decision to make these stories of “get-rich-quick schemes by a few” worthy of front page news. For one thing, it is not a new story. The market has already shaken out most of the bad mortgage writers. For another thing, the courts are already indicting a number of fraudulent deal makers. Putting this kind of story on the front page is just one more step toward the tribune becoming a tabloid newspaper.

Further Fed Rate Cuts?

Bernanke With the national economy teetering on the brink of recession (and some would say already within one, and handily), AND legitimate inflation fears surfacing with reports like this and this, the Federal Reserve faces some tough decisions ahead. Which potential enemy do they fight first: economic contraction or price inflation?

Cutting borrowing rates further certainly helps with problem number one, but could prove problematic for problem number two.

Local mortgage blogger Alex Stenback points us to the crucial questions and some interesting web content on the subject. Click here.

April 21, 2008

Weekly Market Activity Report 4.21.08

The signs are early and nascent, but there are some promising early indicators that the Twin Cities housing market is beginning to correct and pull back from its two year-beeline in the buyer's favor. While affordability, interest rates and overall supply are still attractive, home sellers are cutting back on new listings substantially in 2008.

For the week ending April 12, there were 2,156 new listings, down a full 20.1 percent from the same week last year. That's the fifth week in the last six  that we've seen double-digit percentage drops from 2007 activity. Newly signed purchase agreements (pending sales) are still behind last year also, posting a 3.8 percent decline.

While our market still faces a long road ahead to full recovery, the recent reduction in new supply is a positive beacon on the horizon and undoubtedly welcome news for home sellers.

Click here for the full Weekly Market Activity Report.

Wmar

April 18, 2008

Lessons from the RREAR Pt. I

Rrearicon_3 If you're at all a fan of our Annual Residential Real Estate Activity Report (aka "The RREAR") that's released in February of each year, then you're likely a fan of the detailed, micro-level, neighborhood-based data it provides. Square footage, days on market, sales prices, percent new construcion vs. previously-owned...the list goes on and on -- and it's provided for every MLS area we can possibly fit in the damn thing.

All of this is to say that the amount of information contained in the 16 page report each year is both a) highly useful and b) difficult to sift through in its entirety without losing your mind. Constrained by the boundaries of the PDF format we're forced to simply dump all the data out to you in a grid of colums and rows, with no regard given to ordering the data or highlighting some trends to note.

We're gonna try to rectify this problem by harnessing the power and magic of the blog to dig into the numbers a little further. So let this mark the official beginning of the first post in an ongoing series: Lessons from The RREAR.

Today's subject: Price Per Square Foot.

While an imperfect science, Price Per Square Foot (PPSF) is in essence an attempt to control for the sometimes volatile data variable of home size and equate the value of the home to a simple financial question: how much house do I get for my money? PPSF varies significantly from house to house and is affected by a variety of factors—location, the type and age of the home, structural and cosmetic condition and much more.

Statistically, the Average PPSF by community in the Twin Cities varies greatly from place to place and is affected by all the same factors above, just on a broader geographic scale than a single home.

Below are the Top 20 Areas in the Twin Cities for Average Price Per Square Foot in 2007:

District Area PPSF
302 Mpls – Central $244
605 Sunfish Lake $237
300 Mpls – Calhoun-Isles $230
381 Lake Minnetonka $217
310 Mpls – University $206
740 SP – Crocus Hill $205
741 SP – Downtown/Capital Heights $202
309 Mpls – Southwest $200
750 SP – Mac/Groveland/River Road Area $192
385 Edina $191
752 SP – Highland Area $182
748 SP – Town & Country/Merriam Park $175
303 Mpls – Longfellow $169
604 Mendota/Lilydale/Mendota Heights $166
368 Hennepin-Northwest $166
391 Saint Louis Park $164
618 Eastern Dakota County $163
721 Lakeland/Afton/Denmark $163
304 Mpls – Nokomis $162

And here are the Bottom 20 Areas in Price Per Square Foot in the Twin Cities. These are the spots you could get the most house for your money in 2007:

District Area PPSF
305 Mpls – North $71
370 Sibley County $90
343 Mcleod County $92
342 Hutchinson $97
301 Mpls – Camden $99
742 SP – Central $100
660 Goodhue County $103
714 SP – Phalen $106
658 Le Sueur County $107
363 Brooklyn Center $111
716 SP – Hillcrest/Hazel Park/Daytons Bluff $114
720 SP – Southeast St. Paul $116
783 Cambridge $118
632 Rice County $119
364 Brooklyn Park $119
756 Elk River $120
767 Coon Rapids $121
769 Anoka $121
630 Northfield $121
612 Burnsville $121

For a look at the geographic boundaries of these MLS areas, visit here. And stay tuned in the weeks ahead for more Lessons from the RREAR.

April 16, 2008

Rental Properties on the Rise

There's a very interesting story from the Star Tribune today on the growth in rental properties around certain cities in the metro. In essence, a convergence of market factors is creating an environment where the flip from owner-occupied to renter-occupied is easier and, in some cases, more profitable.

With the well-documented rise in foreclosures, a dearth of qualified and motivated home buyers, and shifting tax burdens rendering an owner-occupied status less desirable than in years past, it's not a shocking development. But worth watching nonetheless.

For a look at how various cities are responding to the growth in rental properties, take a look at the full Star Tribune article from Steve Brandt. Hat tip to Jon Weber for bringing this to our attention.

Rent_sign_94143833_std

April 14, 2008

Weekly Market Activity Report 4.14.08

Spring inventory growth remains staid in the Twin Cities housing market as the annual influx of new properties for sale has not been as rambunctious as the levels seen over the last few springs. The total number of homes for sale in the metro area currently sits at 31,615 up only 3.0 percent from the same time last year—the lowest such year-over-year increase for some years. Home sales remain relatively slow as well, with newly signed purchase agreements (pending sales) from the last three months trailing the same period last year by 16.6 percent.

This week's edition of the MAAR Weekly Market Activity Report features an updated Housing Affordability Index (HAI) for April. The HAI fell slightly to 155 due to a seasonal increase in home prices in March but remains a healthy 16.6 percent above where it was two years ago. Softening prices, motivated sellers and a continuation of historically low interest rates have dramatically improved the affordability picture in recent months.

Click here for the full Weekly Market Activity Report.

Hai_2

Join the Conversation


Today in the Market


  • Updated each Monday with the latest activity from the Twin Cities housing market. Stay on top of fast-paced changes.

  • Provides a comprehensive and interactive look at the entire market in one location. Click and explore.

  • Offers a thorough and detailed look at the current supply of homes for sale and absorption rates by price range, property type and construction status. Dig deeper.

  • Monthly updates for housing activity in over 200 cities in the metropolitan area. Location matters.

  • This definitive annual housing market report features sales and price trends, historical data and commentary on the entire Twin Cities and the hundreds of communities within it.

Recent Comments

RSS Feed

Blog powered by TypePad