The Skinny

NAR Promotes MAAR and 10k

From the Department of Nice Surprises, we saw this come through the e-waves today:

From: TDoyle@realtors.org [mailto:TDoyle@realtors.org]
Sent: Wednesday, August 19, 2009 3:50 PM
To: tdoyle@realtors.org
Subject: A Brief Note from NAR Research

Good afternoon.  By now, you have received your 2nd quarter NAR MLS Economic and Market Watch Reports.  We hope you and your members continue to gain valuable information from these quarterly reports.  I am writing you today, however, to let you know about a great product that is being produced by the Minneapolis Area Association of REALTORS® (MAAR).  For several years now MAAR has produced a Weekly Market Activity Report for the Minneapolis area, which contains some terrific and timely market information.  In fact, we have referenced the MAAR's report quite a bit in our daily Research operations: http://www.mplsrealtor.com/downloads/market/WMAR/wmar.pdf

Recently, the MAAR started producing these same great reports for other MLSs, associations, and boards around the country.  I have pasted a link below to more information on this product in case you wanted to take a look: http://www.10kresearch.com/market.htm

As always, please feel free to call or email me with any questions.

Thomas J. Doyle
Marketing and Communications Manager, Research
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
500 New Jersey Avenue, NW
Washington, DC  20001
Phone: 202-383-7535
Fax: 202-737-6020
Email: tdoyle@realtors.org

Find out daily what NAR economists are saying about the real estate market. Visit http://www.realtor.org/research

Weekly Market Activity Report

Week of August 10, 2009

Woof, it's getting hot out there. The Twin Cities housing market is entering the dog days of summer, and with that comes a bit more stagnant air revolving around new inventory. The 1,637 new listings for the week ending August 1 are 12.2 percent below last year's numbers. Over the past few weeks, pending sales have been flat, but in year-over-year comparisons they are still 20.9 percent above 2008 numbers.

Two new stats for the week:

Days on Market Until Sale: Dropped by 6.6 percent over last year, from 146 to 137. Inventory is being swept up.

Percent of Original List Price: 94 percent. On a steady increase the past few months as is usually the case during the summer months.

 

Weekly Market Activity Report

Week of August 3, 2009

August. Welcome to another summer month in the Twin Cities housing market. Pending sales in July ended on a fairly positive note. The 1,009 purchase agreements signed for the week ending July 25 were 21.4 percent above last year at this time. The 1,652 new listings this week are 9.0 percent less than this week in 2008. Active listings as a whole are 21.7 percent behind last year.

The metric to watch this month is the Supply-Demand Ratio. At 4.88, this is a startling 34.8 percent less than where we were at this time last year. With less than five houses on the market per buyer and an affordability index sky-high at 192, the window is quickly closing for those wanting to get into a home under ideal conditions.

Weekly Market Activity Report 5.26.09

We here at MAAR trust you enjoyed a relaxing and respectful Memorial Day weekend. For the week ending May 16, there were 1,960 new listings, 10.2 percent less than the same week in 2008. The decline in new listings has helped improve the larger picture of total active listings.

Inventory is being sold through at a rate that is still flying high above last year’s numbers. Breaking the 1,200 pending sales threshold for the first time in three years, the 1,235 pending sales occurring during the most recent reporting week is up 36.9 percent over the same week last year. While many of these sales are lender-mediated properties, the increase in sales is welcome news regardless.

The decline in new listings, coupled with increased pending sales, has resulted in active listings supply dropping significantly. A year-over-year comparison of active listings from last May reveals a drop of 20.5 percent, bringing our Supply-Demand Ratio down to a healthy 5.23 houses for sale per buyer.

The rebalancing is beginning but the journey back will be slow. It appears that enough houses will soon be off the market, thus creating a rebalancing of the buyer-seller mix and a reversal in price trends.

Click here to access the full Weekly Market Activity Report.

Weekly Market Activity Report 5.11.09

Not everyone is thrilled by increasing numbers, but what they represent in the Twin Cities housing market is nothing to worry for 108 minutes over. Two increases—pending sales and housing affordability—are indicating improvement in the local housing market.

There were 1,120 pending sales for the week ending May 2, a healthy 26.3 percent above last year at this time. The Housing Affordability Index, now at 219, is 45.5 percent above where it was a year ago.

Active listings continue to underwhelm at 26,450, a decrease of 19.5 percent from last year. The lower figure, coupled with increased sales, has in turn helped to create a Supply Demand Ratio of 5.02 for April—31 percent lower than last year. Combining this with the 24.5 percent drop in Months Supply of Inventory over the past year could speak to the amount of houses (and foreclosures) remaining on the market that are selling through.

We don't want to get too far ahead of ourselves, but this could also usher in some new construction for the summer period. According to the Builders Association of the Twin Cities, there were 419 residential units permitted in April 2009, an increase of 43 percent over March 2009. You don't have to be able to read hieroglyphics to see that within these numbers there could be some optimism found in what was once Lost.

Click here for the full Weekly Market Activity Report

Weekly Market Activity Report 4.27.09

Low mortgage rates, high affordability and government programs designed to encourage home purchases are continuing to spur home sales this spring despite an iffy economy. The week ending April 18 was the fourth consecutive week of pending sales activity that was more than 20 percent higher than during the same week in 2008. There were 1,083 pending sales for the week, up 21.3 percent from this time last year. It was also the third consecutive week of 1,000-plus unit sales, a first-time occurrence since 2006.
 
All these sales are quickly whisking inventory off the market at a time when new listing inventory is not growing at its typically robust spring rate. The number of total homes for sale is down 18.4 percent from a year ago at 26,318. As a result, the gap between this year's supply of homes and that of previous years continues to grow.

Click here for the full Weekly Market Activity Report.

Weekly Market Activity Report 4.13.09

It’s becoming a wild and active spring for the Twin Cities housing market. First, pending sales ought to give REALTORS® some joy in their Easter baskets, with 1,004 reported for the week ending April 4—a 28.7 percent increase over last year and the best single week since May 2007. New listings went skyward compared to last week with 2,055 for the week ending April 4, but they remain 11.2 percent behind the same week a year ago.

The recent jump in sales is bringing the supply of available homes down even further. There are currently 26,085 homes on the market in the region—17.5 percent below this time last year and good for 7.7 months of supply.

Finally, like Warren Robinett in Adventure, this week’s WMAR has its own Easter egg tucked away. The Housing Affordability Index for April has grown to 218, which means the median family income is 218 percent of what’s necessary to qualify for the median priced home. For those of you scoring at home, that’s a 40.8 percent increase over where we stood last year at this time and is 77.3 percent over our low point of 123 in July 2006. We have to bear in mind that increased lender-mediated activity makes that number supernaturally high.

All in all, dropping prices, low mortgage rates and government incentive programs for home buyers are making this a spring to remember.

Click here to view the full Weekly Market Activity Report.

Weekly Market Activity Report 4.6.09

There's no April Foolin' this time of year regarding the Twin Cities housing market. We're able to report several encouraging signs this week as the market seems to be "Def" to any signs of slowdown.

 

For the week ending March 28, pending sales continue to reflect strong growth, increasing 28.2 percent over last year. Our oversupply continues to draw down, with new listings declining by 12.2 percent for the same time period comparison. The total number of houses for sale is 26,131, a decline of 16.2 percent from this time in 2008.

 

Meanwhile, there are three key indicators of recovery at work: (1) Days on Market Until Sale continues its downward trend, dropping 9 percent over last year to 150 days (2) Percent of Original List Price Received at Sale is definitely not Bringin' on the Heartbreak as we're showing our first upward year-over-year move in (a rock of) ages, increasing by 0.6 percent this month (3) Our Supply-Demand Ratio fell to 5.57, which means there are 5.57 houses for sale for each buyer in April, down 23.5 percent from last year.

 

With mortgage rates at historic lows and the $8,000 federal tax credit for first-time home buyers, it's not surprising to see some positive hysteria in our local marketplace. We're certainly excited; thus the untucking of our dress shirt this week. It's been a long time since we've been able to pour some sugar on you.

 

Click here for the full Weekly Market Activity Report.

 

Weekly Market Activity Report 3.30.09

With mortgage rates plunging downward in recent weeks in response to actions taken by the Federal Reserve, home buying activity remains strong.

For the week ending March 21, pending sales in the Twin Cities were 13.0 percent higher than the same week last year, while the number of new listings on the market was basically flat. Over the last three months, there have been approximately 1,200 more signed purchase agreements than there were a year ago and 3,000 fewer new listings. During this time, 58.1 percent of pending sales have been lender-mediated foreclosures and short sales, while 37.1 percent of new listings have been lender-mediated. The fact that the share of lender-mediated sales easily exceeds the share of new lender-mediated listings is a hopeful sign.

New buyers entering this market will be met with strong affordability but will have less to choose from compared to previous years. There are currently 26,064 homes for sale in the metro area, which is down 15.7 percent and 4,840 units from this time in 2008.

Click here for the full Weekly Market Activity Report.

Weekly Market Activity Report 3.23.09

Has everyone remembered to “spring” forward?  It looks like the Twin Cities housing market certainly has, as the new season has brought in an uptick in sales along with the warm weather.  The market can only hope that “spring” fever is more than just a figure of speech.

Speaking of pending sales, while they have tapered off during the week ending March 14, there is no denying that since the new year began pending sales have steadily outperformed last year’s numbers.  In fact, even with almost no increase in pending sales activity the 870 pending sales for the week are still 14.9 percent higher than last March at this time.

Total active listings are another story.  While new listings for this period are only 13.9 percent lower than last year, active listings are down nearly 14.7 percent.  This can be looked at in a positive light however if you consider the combination of pending sales, decreasing inventory, and higher HAI (Housing Affordability Index) are all helping to get more people into homes throughout the new spring season.  This coupled with the federal government’s tax credit efforts could give the Twin Cities housing market the added boost it needs to awaken and to realize the potential that is out there.

There are many other events that coincide with spring:  spring training, spring fever, spring boards…ok that last one isn’t technically associated with the season.  But with the Month’s Supply of Inventory for March down 15.2 percent over last year, agents across the Twin Cities can assist buyers in diving right into the market now that conditions are beginning to warm.

Click here for the full Weekly Market Activity Report.

Weekly Market Activity Report – March 2, 2009

Brr! Did the last snowstorm convince you that winter has not loosened its icy grip on the Twin Cities quite yet? It seems assured that March will lion in and lamb out, but the Twin Cities housing market is not expected to show the same pattern, as sales continue to climb upward when compared to last year's numbers.

Since December 2008, pending sales for the Twin Cities housing market have continued to outperform the same week for the prior year. For the week ending February 21, pending sales are up 12.4 percent vs. last year at this time. Deep freeze or not, buyers are showing a willingness to brave the temperatures for a deal.

New listings checked in at 1,558, which is 15 percent below 2008. Active listings are off from last year by about 4,000 (or 13.7 percent fewer) homes. Warmer weather tends to coincide with more activity, so we'll be watching new and active listings with much interest over the next few months.

Another number to watch is the Supply-Demand Ratio (SDR). This figure, representing how many homes are available per buyer, is down 21.8 percent to 6.38 homes per buyer compared to last year. That's now nine months in a row of lowered year-over-year SDR. With fewer active listings and a shrinking SDR, sellers may begin to feel some easement from the buyer's market wedge. It's too early to tell, but as many of our REALTOR® members are telling us, the increase in foot traffic is palpable.

Weekly Market Activity Report 2.23.09

One. That's the number of times over the last 33 weeks that we've had fewer pending sales this year than we did a year ago. And the week in question was Thanksgiving—a week where making an offer on a home is typically ignored in favor of turkey and afternoon naps during another annual loss by the Detroit Lions.
 
The buying party continued for the week ending January 14, as there were 731 pending sales in the Twin Cities—up 17.1 percent. Over the last three months, there have been almost 1,200 more pending sales than there were last year. During this time period, 60.3 percent of sales were lender-mediated foreclosures or short sales.
 
Increased sales means increased absorption of inventory means less houses for sale. There are approximately 4,000 fewer houses for sale right now than there were at this time last year, a drop of nearly 14 percent. New listings remain sluggish as well. The most recent reporting week saw a 9.5 percent year-over-year decline.

Click here to see the full Weekly Market Activity Report.

Bonus points to anyone who understands why there's a picture of James Hetfield in the post.

 

Weekly Market Activity Report 2.16.09

Did you find your true love on Saturday night? Or were you out there showing houses and adding to the already sizable gains in pending sales seen in the Weekly Market Activity Report? Either way, it appears that more Twin Cities home buyers are finding their hearts' desires as we enter the second month of 2009.
 
New listings continue their seasonal upward movement, with 1,780 homes for the week ending February 7. This is a 16.2 percent decrease from the same week last year—an ongoing good news trend for an oversupplied market. For the same time period, there were 745 pending sales, an increase of 17.5 percent compared to last year at this time. Sales have increased more steadily than new listings so far this year, which has helped reign in our Months Supply of Inventory to a healthier 7.7 months—down 13.5 percent from last year.
 
Active listings for sale continue to trail year-over-year numbers. There are currently 25,537 homes for sale, a 12.4 percent decrease from last year. Thankfully, increasing affordability means that a healthier share of these homes should find true romance with a buyer than in previous years.

Click here for the full Weekly Market Activity Report.

Weekly Market Activity Report 1.20.09

There's much "change" in the air around the world today. And there is also change happening on the streets of the Twin Cities metro area, as the number of new listings appearing in our Weekly Market Activity Report takes its ascendant year-opening uptick. Despite the increase, new listings for the week ending January 10 have not quite matched the numbers seen at this time period last year (down 7.6 percent). Pending sales are riding a healthy clip above where they were last year (up 19.4 percent) as more homeowners pour back into the market after the year-end transition.
 
As a summation of how most of 2008 went, total active listings for the year finished down 10 percent from the year before. Time will tell if the flurry of optimism associated with today's presidential inauguration will work its way into the economy, the housing market and, specifically, the Twin Cities housing arena. Hope meets anxiety at the crossroads of 2009.

Click here for the full Weekly Market Activity Report.

Weekly Market Activity Report 1.12.08

The New Year rang in with the normal post-holiday increase in new listings, but listings are still down from the same week last year. Pending sales for the week ending January 3 showed a strong increase during the year-end transition, rising nearly 40 percent compared to last year. Over the last three months of the year, pending sales were 18 percent higher than last year. Local housing inventory has reached its annual low point but looks to rebound in the opening months of 2009.
 
This week's edition of the MAAR Weekly Market Activity Report features updated figures from several important metrics:

In December, Days on Market Until Sale dropped 6.3 percent compared to last year. The market appears to have reached a plateau in the amount of time needed to sell a house, and this welcome decline certainly could continue into the next year. 

Percent of Original List Price Received at Sale closed at 90.0 in December, 1.3 percent lower than last year.

The new Housing Affordability Index (HAI) for January is extremely positive. Last month we stated that the HAI of 180 was the highest we had ever recorded. Now it's even higher, jumping an additional 12 points to 192. The rise reflects the help that interest rates and softer prices have given to the market. (Note: The decline in prices is driven by the significant amount of lender-mediated home sales and its benefit is not equal to all buyers.)

Click here for the full Weekly Market Activity Report.