The Skinny

Weekly Market Activity Report

For the week ending November 20, Pending Sales in the Twin Cities metropolitan area declined by just 4.1 percent from year-ago levels, marking the second week in a row where this year's sales figures closely match last year's numbers. There were 579 pendings for the week, and we have kept pace at about 600 sales per week for the past six months.

At 1,159, New Listings were 1.3 percent below 2009 levels. This year's listing activity has occasionally strayed from last year's trend line but has, for the most part, tracked along a fairly similar path.

As expected, the year-over-year inventory gains have been tapering off. As of November 29, the 24,423 active listings were 9.6 percent fewer than last year at this time. That's the third consecutive week of decreasing inventory gains. This metric does a great job of illustrating the buyer-seller balance as the market prepares for hibernation.

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Weekly Market Activity Report

Despite the icy roads, year-over-year purchase demand gives the appearance of gaining some traction. For the week ending November 13, there were 577 Pending Sales in the Twin Cities metropolitan area, a small 4.3 percent decline from year-ago levels.

Don’t put too much stock in this closing gap of home buyer activity, as compared to 2009. This year’s home sales have remained relatively flat at winter levels since the tax credit expired last spring. Buyer activity declined at this time in 2009 and that's driving down the year-over-year change. We're just now entering the part of the calendar where this sales trend is to be expected.

After two weeks of flirting with black ink, seller activity is back in the red. The 1,144 new homes listed on the market was a 5.3 percent decrease from 2009 levels. Inventory increases seem to be tapering off, a seasonal expectation for this time of year. There are 24,849 homes for buyers to choose from, up 10.4 percent from year-ago levels. That’s the smallest inventory gain in seven weeks. If this trend continues, it will serve to help rebalance the Twin Cities housing market.

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Real Estate News Clippings

Here is list of recent articles related to our Housing Market.

Don't Underestimate Foreclosure Crisis, Watchdog Warns
November 16, 2010 | Washington Post | Brady Dennis and Ariana Eunjung Cha

Foreclosures Plague Twin Cities Market
November 10, 2010 | Star Tribune  | Jim Buchta

Gov’t Has Spent Small Fraction of $50 Billion Pledged for Loan Mods
November 11, 2010 | ProPublica | Paul Kiel

Bank of America Is in Deep Trouble, and There May Be Financial Disaster on the Horizon
November 11, 2010 | AlterNet | Joshua Holland

Twin Cities home sales down more than 35 pct. in October
November 10, 2010 | Minnesota Public Radio | Jessica Mador

Homes sales off 41 percent in Twin Cities; prices hold steady
November 10, 2010 | Pioneer Press | Gita Sitaramiah

Home sales down 41% in October in Twin Cities
November 10, 2010 | Minneapolis / St. Paul Business Journal | Sam Black

Twin Cities Home Sales Down Last Month
November 10, 2010 | Finance and Commerce | Scott Carlson

 

Weekly Market Activity Report

For the week ending November 6, the pending snow outlook worsened as the Pending Sales outlook improved. The 619 signed purchase agreements in the Twin Cities metropolitan area marked a 16.0 percent drop from the same week last year. That's the smallest decline since the week ending May 8.

We do need to add some context to that piece of good news. We are not seeing an increase in sales activity this year so much as sales began to decline at this time last year. The post tax-credit demand vacuum will lose suction during the winter months but will likely reappear this spring.

Potential sellers had a relatively busy week, listing 1,399 new properties on the market for a 10.6 percent increase over last year. That's the first significant increase in New Listings since the week ending April 24.

Although inventory levels were 11.3 percent higher than last year at 25,257 active listings, the rate of increase appears to be slowing. The Supply Demand Ratio has reached 10.82, its highest level since December 2008. This means there are currently about 11 homes available per buyer.

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November Skinny Video

Where has the Twin Cities real estate market been and where is it heading? This monthly summary provides an overview of current trends and projections for future activity. Narrated by Brad Fisher (President, Minneapolis Area Association of REALTORS®), audio recorded by Zach Foty and video produced by Chelsie Lopez. Click here to view in a separate window or just check the embedded clip below:
 

Sales Down, Inventory Up, Prices Flat

Minneapolis, Minnesota (November 10, 2010) – Pending sales in the 13-county Twin Cities metro area were down 35.6 percent compared to last October, and closed sales were down 40.7 percent for the same period. This is in line with yearover-year changes since the tax credit ended. However, when compared to year-to-date 2008, there was a less dramatic 3.7 percent decline in pendings and 3.9 percent decline in closings.

The $170,000 median sales price was a modest 0.6 percent increase over last year and the eighth month of price gains this year. After the first seven months of 2010 enjoyed year-over-year price gains, August and September saw slight price drops.

 
 

“Prices reflect the mix of homes that closed in any given
month,” said Brad Fisher, President of the Minneapolis Area Association of REALTORS®. “The last four months have indicated that median prices are generally stuck in neutral.”

Digging deeper, listing activity was down 8.4 percent across the board. But seller activity only decreased among traditional sellers (nonforeclosure and non-short sale) where it was down 16.3 percent. Foreclosure listings were up 14.7 percent and short sale listings were up a slight 0.3 percent.

All segments showed a decrease in pending sales activity—38.8 percent for traditional sellers, 19.2 percent for foreclosures and 27.5 percent for short sales.

Similarly, October’s price gain wasn’t felt equally across the market. Traditional sellers enjoyed a 10.8 percent price increase to $215,000, foreclosure prices dropped 2.5 percent to $115,000 and short sale prices were up 3.4 percent to $155,000.

Negotiations slid back toward buyers for the fourth consecutive month. The percent of original list price received at sale declined 4.6 percent to 90.3 percent. The last time this metric was this low was April 2009.

There are currently 8.2 months supply of inventory for the entire Twin Cities market—up 34.5 percent from the 6.1 months of supply last year at this time. Inventory grew 10.6 percent since October 2009 to 25,706 units. Market times for these homes increased across the board in October. Traditional homes averaged 132 days on the market before a sale while foreclosures and short sales averaged 118 and 220 days, respectively.

“While there have been modest rays of hope in recent economic news, it has not been enough to infuse energy into the realty market,” said MAAR President-Elect, Pat Paulson. “It will be interesting to watch strategies that new leadership in Washington adopts to address housing uncertainties.”

All information is according to the Minneapolis Area Association of REALTORS® (MAAR) based on data from the Regional Multiple Listing Service of Minnesota, Inc. MAAR is the leading regional advocate and provider of information services and research on the real estate industry for brokers, real estate
professionals and the public. MAAR serves the Twin Cities 13-county metro area and western Wisconsin.

Weekly Market Activity Report

For the week ending October 30, New Listings in the 13-county Twin Cities metropolitan area were up 0.4 percent over last year to punch in at 1,266 new units. That’s the first time seller activity has outpaced last year’s levels since the last full week of April.

Buyer activity wasn’t quite so fortunate as Pending Sales were down 29.9 percent over the same week last year. But that’s a major win in its own right. The 579 signed purchase agreements mark the smallest year-over-year decrease in housing demand since the first week of May.

Inventory continued its ascent. As of November 8, the 25,629 Active Listings weighed in 12.0 percent heavier than last year. This metric has been steadily climbing since early June and should continue to be monitored closely. It means increased competition among sellers and more options and leverage for buyers.

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Weekly Market Activity Report

Pending Sales in the 13-county Twin Cities metro experienced its smallest decrease since the end of May. The 611 purchase agreements signed for the week ending October 23 were 34.0 percent fewer than the same week in 2009. While still in the red, it’s not to the extent we’ve seen the past few months.

Seller activity held fairly stable at 1,303 New Listings for the week. This made for an 8.9 percent dip from last year’s levels and was roughly on par with the 7.8 percent average decline over the past three months.

Inventory is still high. As of November 1, it stands at 25,706 Active Listings, an 11.5 percent jump since last year at this time. The pace of inventory activity should continue to decline as we step toward winter.

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